Friday, 30 September 2016

Mount saint helens eruption 1980 may 18th





Mount St. Helens or Louwala-Clough is an active stratovolcano(which means its formed by layers of ash and lava) located in Skamania County, Washington, in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States, mount saint Helens is still active and its last eruption was in 2008.



Image result for stratovolcano layer
This shows how a stratovolcano is formed

On March 16, 1980, the first sign of activity at Mount St. Helens occurred as a series of small earthquakes occurred, on March 27, after additional earthquakes, the volcano produced its first eruption in over 100 years, huge amount of ask was funneled into the sky, however this initial eruption gave no evidence that a later eruption would occur. 




Image result for mount saint helens map usa
www.thinglink.com

The initial earthquake that was created by the pressure of magma building up underneath mount saint Helens was a 4.2 in the rictor scale, the earthquake was caused by the subductive plate boundary Juan de Fuca plate subducting beneath the North American plate , this caused a benniof zone that would create the magma that was storing under the mountain.

Fore weeks after the initial earthquake and eruption a bulge in the mountain occurred this bulge grew with time and towards the last few days before the eruption and landslide the bulge seemed to breathe, the bulge is magma exploiting a weak spot as it cant find a blowhole.


Image result for mount saint helens bulge
Suddenly at 8:32 a.m a magnitude 5.1 earthquake directly below the north slope triggered that part of the volcano to slide approximately 10 seconds after the shock The landslide, the largest in recorded history, traveled at 110 to 155 miles per hour, the total amount of rock moved was 1.5 billion tonnes, the surrounding 230 square miles were destroyed and a 17 mile blast zone was produced. 



Image result for mount saint helens before and after
The blast released energy equal to 24 Megatons of TNT, one megaton is 1,000,000 tons of chemical explosives the fat boy bomb was 20,000 tons compared to 24,000,000














Thursday, 15 September 2016

Istanbul an inevitable earthquake disaster waiting to happen


The Little Apocalypse was the last earthquake to hit Istanbul in 1509, 503 years ago.
For a few years now seismologist have predicted that an earthquake could flatten Istanbul the capital city of turkey with a total population of around 14,000,000 (18% of turkeys total population) the fault that Istanbul is located near is the North Anatolian fault, in the past decade earthquakes have moved there way along the fault like unzipping a coat and its next predicted place to strike will most likely effect Istanbul.



Image result
photo credit to www.earthmagazine.org
Seismologist have predicted that the earthquake will be very large they also say that there is a 65% probability that Istanbul will be hit by a 7.6 earthquake by 2030 however this has to be taken with a pinch of salt as there have been countless times when scientist have been wrong about earthquakes and there is really no way they can predict what the fault will do.

The impacts an earthquake will have on Istanbul?

Istanbul is not geographically in a worse place than LA or Tokyo, however, its the rate the city is expanding and the style of houses and rack of regulation thats scary about 65% of buildings in Istanbul don't meet the rules and the city is growing too fast for anyone to be able to keep up this will lead to buildings being faltered by something called the pancake effect a good example of this is in my last blog the 2010 haiti earthquake, however, Port-au-Prince has a total population of around 704,776  compared to Istanbul's 14 million and growing at a rate or 400,000 a year which is 3.45%, this is the fastest growing metropolitan population in the world.

So what has Istanbul done to prepare for the next earthquake?

The city authorities have tightened building regulations so that they are more earthquake ready and there are calls to demolish tens of thousands of buildings to prevent them falling down and causing a risk to life , however will this all be done in time ?

One of the main problems is that people cant afford to move house to a more earthquake stable place or the cant afford to build earthquake resistant houses in the first place in the west on the city in the district of Avcilar on the European side of city there are hundreds of abandoned flats as people with money have moved out knowing that if an earthquake strikes the flats will most likely fall. 
Image result for Avcilar ıstanbul map on turkey istanbull

In school children are taught how to evacuate in the occurrence of an earthquake, its the children that are more clued up about an earthquake they are taught how to secure objects so they don't fall when an earthquake strikes.











Haiti 2010 12th January earthquake


in 2008 scientist realised that the North America plate a the Arabian plate had stooped moving at all, normally the conservative plate margin moved at 7mm per year, they predicted that a huge earthquake could occur and that it was likely to impact the capital, in 2010 the earthquake struck at 4.51pm.

At the 4:51pm local time a magnitude 7 on the Richter scale earthquake struck Haiti killing a total of 250,000 people and leaving nothing but rubble behind, why was this earthquake so destructive and why did it claim so many lives?



Image result for haiti earthquake epicenter




Before I can explain that there are some more key facts and background knowledge that needs to be explained, the earthquake was a magnitude 7 on the richter scale and was followed 8 days later with a 5.1 earthquake on the 20th January at 06:03 local time, the enitial earthquake has a hypocenter of 13km classing this as a shallow earthquake (Shallow earthquakes are between 0 and 70 km deep; intermediate earthquakes, 70 - 300 km deep; and deep earthquakes, 300 - 700 km deep.) causing it to be very destructive as little energy was released by the time it reached the surface, the epicentre was 24km wsw of the capital of Haiti Port-au-Prince.

When the earthquake reached Port-au-Prince it caused chaos and destruction, 50% of its buildings were destroyed and a local tsunami killed 7 people, the port was destroyed by liquefaction down to the poorly compacted soft ground and lateral spreading of the higher land dropping into the sea.

The main points that caused such a high amount of death were the fact that:

  • the buildings were not regulated and had no seismic bracing which leads to the pancake effect on a very large amount of buildings 

  • Port-au-Prince was a quickly developing county and houses were built on unstable slopes which were made even more unstable by the earthquake and caused multiple landslides 

Image result for haiti earthquake landslides


  • a process called amplification (as seismic waves such as Rayleigh and surface love waves passed through soft sediment the waves moment are amplified and increased resulting in a more intense shaking) caused houses to shake more violently as they were built on soft ground  

Because the port was unusable aid had to be dropped my helicopters and land vehicles however because of the state of the roads this was nearly impossible   



Image result for haiti earthquake roads





Monday, 12 September 2016

Kerala vs japan birth control case study

LIC- India

India and especially kerala was the first developing nation to launch a national family planning programme as early as 1952 not only have they encouraged the use of contraception but have included many social changes such as healthcare and education the family planning consisted of educating families on how many children they should have and also the use of contraception, this would be through education, this scheme has been very successful for india, in 2009 the use of contraception has tripled compared to the use of contraception in the 1960s, however only 3% of contraceptive methods were condoms this shows that women are getting the choice of not having children because their partner and themselves have been educated.

These are some of the things India has done to control its population.
     improving education standards and treating girls as equals to boys
     providing adult literacy classes in towns and villages
     educating people to understand the benefits of smaller families
     reducing infant mortality so people no longer need to have so many children
     improving child health through vaccination programmes
     providing free contraception and advice
     encouraging a higher age of marriage
     allowing maternity leave for the first two babies only
     providing extra retirement benefits for those who have smaller families
     following a land reform programme (land redistributed so that no-one was landless, no family was allowed more than 8ha and everyone could be self-sufficient)

Because of the family planning working well fertility rate has been drastically reduced however compared to most of the western world it's still high, the fertility rate has fallen but it's still not at replacement level (being 2.1) in 2012 India's fertility rate was 2.50 compared to japan's 1.41(2012)
however as you can see in the picture its fertility rate has been dropping,  From 5.7 in 1966, it declined to 3.3 by 1997 and 2.7 in 2009 and only dropping 0.2 by 2012 now its rate of decline is very slow and people believe that it's only a matter of time till it passes China in the world largest population.





The Indian government has not only been trying to reduce fertility rate but it has also introduced five- and seven-year plans to improve agriculture. Land reform policies have been introduced in an attempt to share the land more evenly. Over 160 million people live on farms smaller than 1 hectare, the minimum size required to support an Indian family. Almost as many own no land at all. Land reform concentrated on redistributing land to landless peasant with varying success.

So if the land reform process works which it is then it will raise a huge amount of people above the poverty line ($1.25) in 2015 29.8% (360 million) of India's 1.21 billion people live below the poverty line this is, a sharp drop from 37.2% in 2004-2005 as long as this drop is sustained india will eventually increase its GDP and lead to increased life expectancy THEN we will see a huge increase in population with india's life expectancy being 66 years old it will   easily increase to 80+  this leaves a possible 20 million extra people in india.
India literacy rate is still very low 78% and for women, it's only at 65.46% this compared to males 82.14% so without this improving then there fertility rate of women their population can never get to the rate they want.
India's total land mass is 3,287,240 km squared 54% of this is used for agriculture unlike many countries India has very habitable land that's why so much is used for crops, only a few regions are uninhabitable because of the damage the monsoon season does however with development India will surely develop ways to counter the damage is does this will allow it to make space for infrastructure houses India's total population only and it has a total population of 1.252,000,000,000 that's 1.252 billion.

India's in stage 3 of the dtm (demographic transition model) this means” death rates are low and birth rates decrease, usually as a result of improved economic conditions, an increase in women’s status and education, and access to contraception.” quote from https://www.populationeducation.org

India has a very poor health system not only that but it has barely any accessible roads to hospitals and the majority of hospitals are shelters and tents set up in rural places if you are ill you have to walk, in some of its most developed cities there is an option for ambulances but with congestion so bad there is no point in getting an ambulance, in 2012 there were 1.7 nurses per 1000 people in india so the chance of seting a free space or to be treated to on time is very small this compared to japan's 11.5 nurses per 1000 people.

In India there are a huge amount of people leaving the country with a total net migration of -2,294,049 with most of the people moving originated from the north could this mean that there is a lower standard of living there? well yes there is crime rate is rising and with the mountains terrain life there must be very hard, ontop of this there has been a huge amount of earthquakes in the last few decades.



HIC- japan

Japan is also interestingly rated 10th in the world by population count and has a total landmass of about 377,835 km²( Japan has nearly double the population of the UK but with only a land mass 1.5 times bigger)  however most of this area is uninhabitable as it consists of tiny islands and mountainous terrain this is what makes it strange as almost four-fifths of Japan is covered with mountains. The Japanese Alps run down the center of the largest island, Honshu the highest peak is Mount Fuji, a cone-shaped volcano.

So for it to have such a high population being a total of 127.3 million (2013) 21% of these people being over 65 years old it's no wonder its population density is so high in its cities as that where everyone lives with a  population density , of 336 people per square mile most of the people are crammed into its main cities especially in the south, these main cities being :toyoko with a  Metropolitan area population of a huge 32 million and a citie population of 13 million toyoko having an area of 6,993 square kilometers, the area of Tokyo is 0.6% of the total area of Japan but it holds 10% of its total population (working off its city population) it also has a population density of 4,750 persons per square kilometer.
 
The total migration between Toyoko is 186,000 people came into Tokyo while 172,000 moved out, this gives a net migration of 14,000 per year and Yokohama(south of Tokyo) with a total population of 3,689,603.

Japan has 1 mega cities this is Tokyo, compared to India's number of megacities being 0! however with the huge amount of people in slum areas it's hard to really distinguish its true population , India also has a population density of 436 on 2014 this is amazing as India is approximately 8 times larger than Japan, however, it still maintains a high density, unlike Japan only a small amount of India is uninhabitable. 

In Japan 80% of birth control methods are condoms whereas in India this is only 3%  while the rest use either the rhythm method or a spermicide jelly a huge 1 in 5 people use the rhythm method this goes back to Japan's culture and purity beliefs  and that the majority of people in Japan are Buddhists which are against any form of contraception. these are reasonably expensive methods, amazingly japan is against permanent methods of contraception taken from factsanddetails.com “Abortions were banned in 1907 and all kinds of birth control were made illegal in World War II. In the 1950s, when the population was growing rapidly and women were added in the labour force, abortion was legalized for "economic and health" reasons.” so the main reasons for Japan's fertility rate being so slow is because social and political changes and propaganda is very strong.

Japan's natural increase is at -1.73% this is very low compared to India's natural increase of 13.69%



      High GDP - Gross Domestic Product
      210 doctors per 1000 people
      Women having children older
      High quality of life
      Very strict immigration policies
      Average age of first marriage increasing
      Marriage rates are falling
      Higher proportion of women in employment

All these points are reasons for women not to have children in some way or another this and the fact that it's so overpopulated, what also is not helping japan's ageing population crisis is the fact that immigration is very strict even more so than Australia and like Australia legal immigration has become restricted to skilled workers and so most of the immigrants are skilled professional people employed by large corporations such as Mitsubishi and Toyota Motor. However around 200,000 illegal foreigners can be found in Japan, most of whom are Chinese, there is not only a lack of skilled workers but a recent survey has shown that low skilled workers are also needed in Japan.

Japan's workforce is at 65,559,495 that's just over 50% of people working, however japan's life expectancy is at 84 years old compared to India 68 years old life expectancy, this is a huge difference and could be linked to many things such as japan's amazing health care and its monthly wage at $669 compared to India's yearly wage of $616

The country’s labour force began to shrink in the mid-1990s, and the total population peaked in 2008. If nothing changes, there will be 30m fewer Japanese by 2050, and by the early 2100s, the population could be half or even a third what it is today if it carries on to not letting people into their countries.

Also, Japan is situated on several tectonic plates, making it strange how so many Japanese live with an earthquake risk and a potential for millions to die even with the technology that Japan has in place today. Japan is often criticised because of how few Japanese farmers and farms there are however there is a lack to what they can grow in Japan and in the past their diet consists of fish and vegetables and fruit there was they tend to rely heavily on imports.














Japan is in stage 5 on the DTM was taken from www.populationeducation.org n “Stage 5 of the DTM a country experiences loss to the overall population as the death rate becomes higher than the birth rate. The negative population growth rate is not an immediate effect, however. Based on demographic momentum, in which total population growth increases even while birth rates decline, it will take a generation or two before a negative population growth rate is observed.” this shows that japan is very developed its literacy rate is at 99% and its female literacy rate is 99% this is another reason to why the fertility rate is so low as women are getting jobs and having children later instead of bringing up children and having children at a low age, females are more likely to get a job with a lower percentage in unemployment 7.1% of females are unemployed while 8.7% of males are unemployed.



2016 august 24th Italian earthquake




In 2009 a 6.3-magnitude earthquake in the Aquila region, which was also felt in the Italian capital 117 km away, the earthquake left more than 300 dead now in 2016 another 6.2 earthquakes has struck and the death toll is above 290 and is expected to increase.


An earthquake, measuring 6.2 on the richter scale hit italy on the 24th of august at 3:36 in the morning the initial shock was 6.2 and had a hypocenter that was 10 km deep giving the earthquake a shallow earthquake title and causing it to be more destructive as the rock has less effect on reducing the lateral and vertical shaking(this is also known as newton's inverse square law which states that as the distance doubles energy will decrease by a factor of 4) of the Adria micro-plate being subducted under the Eurasia two plate.




The earthquake claimed a total of around 159 deaths within the first few days however an accurate amount of fatalities is hard to find and could be up to 300 and above, the earthquake was followed by around 2500 aftershocks in the following weeks that passed, on the 24th there were 8 aftershocks that all measured above 4.0 of the Richter scale, at 4:33 the second largest an aftershock occurred which measured a 5.5 on the Richter scale.


One of the reasons for the large amounts of deaths was the fact that the earthquake stuck in the middle of the night, therefore, most people were unable to escape from their houses as the earthquake shook the ground, earthquakes don't kill people falling buildings do, which brings me on the second reason why so many people died in a country which is meant to be a HIC and also experience around 20 earthquakes a day however most of these are so small that on seismographs can detect them, the buildings in the two mainly affected areas Amatrice (population density of 15 per KM squared) and Accumoli, about 117 km northeast of Rome were old and poorly constructed and therefore gave way as their foundation were shook.











The earthquake Mercalli scale has not been released yet however if we look as previous earthquakes and also look at the 12 points on the Mercalli scale we can give an educated answer to what it is meant to be.
Using the Mercalli scale I estimate that the earthquake was around a 7-8


Image result for mercalli scale




Other key things to note with this natural disaster are:

  • 50 million was released by the government to help provide for the cost of the search and rescue
  • 12 helicopter was dispatched to help with the rescue, with such destruction ground-based vehicles would be unsuitable to help with the search
  • 80% of buildings were destroyed in both villages
  • 120 roads were blocked or destroyed















How does this compare to other 6.2 magnitude earthquakes?


The 1984 Otaki earthquake hit Nagano Prefecture, Japan on September 14, 1984, at 08:48 local time killing 29 people.

  • Hypocenter of 3km deep
  • 29 dead
  • Huge landslides
  • Low population density similar to Amatrice